10 Days to Go

With only 10 days to go it's time to make another call for Nevada. A couple months ago it looked to be a tight race, maybe even in John McCain's favor. But now this battleground state seems to be leaning Obama.

One of the best predictors in the past few elections about how Nevada citizens vote has been the Yucca Mountain issue. People in Nevada favor those candidates that have promised to block or prolong Yucca Mountain as a possible nuclear waste site. Clinton promised to veto legislation to make a temporary site in Nevada in 1996,as did Bush in 2000. Both of these candiates won Nevada in their respective years. McCain has said he favors Yucca Mountain as a nuclear waste repository if research shows the site to be safe. In contrast, Obama does not approve of the Yucca Mountain as a nuclear waste site and therefore makes a more appealing case to those in Nevada.

Most polls during October have shown Obama with a 3 to 5 point lead on McCain. The most recent CNN/Time poll reports a a 5 point lead with Obama at 51% and McCain at 46%. However, the Zogby Internet poll actually shows McCain with an 8 point lead, 52% to Obama's 44%. The more consistent pattern, though, has been a slight lead for Obama throughout the past couple of weeks.

Also important is the large amount of newly registered voters. In the past two elections registered Republicans have outnumbered registered Democrats. The Obama campaign and the get out the vote efforts have now helped Democrats to outnumber Republicans by over 80,000. This reflects the current early voting trends, especially in the two key counties, Washoe and Clark.

In the third congressional district, the Las Vegas Sun reports that there have been 35, 528 ballots cast by Democrats, 19, 211 ballots by Republicans, and 10, 768 votes by Independents. This district contains the hotly contested congressional race between Republican Joe Porter and Democrat Dina Titus. The Republicans in all other districts have also been being heavily outvoted by Democrats.

Obama is also outspending McCain in Nevada. In early October, Obama spent $616,000 on television ads, compared to only $329,000 spent by McCain. This clearly has had an impact on the turnout of voters and continues to excite the Democratic base.

Because of these factors I am calling Nevada for Barack Obama.