Obama announced earlier today the death of his grandmother, Madelyn Payne Dunham, age 86, after a long battle with cancer. Obama and his sister Maya Soetoro-Ng announced in a statement that "She was the cornerstone of our family, and a woman of extraordinary accomplishment, strength, and humility. She was the person who encouraged and allowed us to take chances," they said. "She was proud of her grandchildren and great-grandchildren and left this world with the knowledge that her impact on all of us was meaningful and enduring. Our debt to her is beyond measure. "
Obama learned of more sad news on Sunday as well. Terence Tolbert, 44, and Obama's Nevada campaign director passed away of a heart attack late Sunday night. Obama stated he was "shocked and saddened" to learn of Tolbert's death. The Las Vegas Sun quotes Obama saying, "Terence was a strong force in this campaign, with a positive outlook that brought people together. He was much loved by his team, who often repeated his motto of 'leave no stone unturned.' His enthusiasm, talent, and warm heart will truly be missed. The thoughts and prayers of the entire Obama-Biden family are with his wife and loved ones."
Two deaths in one weekend is a lot for Obama to handle, especially one day before the election. However, Obama still seems focused and visited Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia today.
Monday, November 3, 2008
Sunday, November 2, 2008
Record Number of Voters Expected
So far 600,000 voters in Nevada have cast their vote which represents 56% of all registered voters. The recent visits of McCain, Palin, and Obama have spurred an even greater surge in voter turnout.
Secretary of State Ross Miller says he expects 90%, or 1.1 million active voters to turn out for this election. While this might be an overstatement, record numbers are surely expected. In 2004, 821,866 voters cast a ballot in Nevada.
The majority of active voters live in Washoe County and account for 87% of the total number of registered voters. In Washoe 45% of the ballots have been Democrats and 38% have been Republican.
Obviously Nevada is following the national trend in turning out a record number of voters for this crucial election. Interestingly, however, will be the impact of newly registered voters in this state and the overwhelming majority of registered Democrats.
Secretary of State Ross Miller says he expects 90%, or 1.1 million active voters to turn out for this election. While this might be an overstatement, record numbers are surely expected. In 2004, 821,866 voters cast a ballot in Nevada.
The majority of active voters live in Washoe County and account for 87% of the total number of registered voters. In Washoe 45% of the ballots have been Democrats and 38% have been Republican.
Obviously Nevada is following the national trend in turning out a record number of voters for this crucial election. Interestingly, however, will be the impact of newly registered voters in this state and the overwhelming majority of registered Democrats.
1 Day To Go!
With only one day left to go, it still looks like Obama will take Nevada's 5 electoral votes with ease. There are several indicators for this prediction.
Looking at the polls, Obama has been leading for almost two months now. The most recent poll, the Mason-Dixon poll from October 28/29 shows Obama with 47% and McCain with 43%.
Secondly, Obama is outspending McCain on advertisements. CNN reports Obama as spending $8,457,067 to date compared to McCain's $5,343,068. As a battleground state, the number of ads is crucial, especially with the number of newly registered voters.
The number of newly registered voters strongly favors the Democrats. For counties like Clark and Washoe, this is the first time Democrats have outnumbered Republicans in registered voters. In Clark County 388,000 people have already cast their vote. Of these early votes 51% have come from Democrats and 32% have come from Republicans. Of all Democrats registered in Clark County, 51% have voted. Of all the registered Republicans 48% have voted.
Election Day is very important for both candidates and Independent voters will have a large impact in the results of this state. However, I still think it is safe to call Nevada for Obama.
Looking at the polls, Obama has been leading for almost two months now. The most recent poll, the Mason-Dixon poll from October 28/29 shows Obama with 47% and McCain with 43%.
Secondly, Obama is outspending McCain on advertisements. CNN reports Obama as spending $8,457,067 to date compared to McCain's $5,343,068. As a battleground state, the number of ads is crucial, especially with the number of newly registered voters.
The number of newly registered voters strongly favors the Democrats. For counties like Clark and Washoe, this is the first time Democrats have outnumbered Republicans in registered voters. In Clark County 388,000 people have already cast their vote. Of these early votes 51% have come from Democrats and 32% have come from Republicans. Of all Democrats registered in Clark County, 51% have voted. Of all the registered Republicans 48% have voted.
Election Day is very important for both candidates and Independent voters will have a large impact in the results of this state. However, I still think it is safe to call Nevada for Obama.
Saturday, November 1, 2008
The Blue State
With only three days to go until the election, Nevada no longer seems to be a battleground state. Both pollster.com and politico.com have changed the state from a battleground to an Obama state.
The most recent CNN/Time poll shows Obama with a 7 point lead, 52% to McCain’s 45%. Likewise, the most recent Research 2000 poll reports a 5 point lead for Obama, 50% to 45%.
In addition, Obama seems to be putting more effort into the campaign than McCain is. Today Obama stopped in Henderson at Coronado High School to get people excited about his policies and about voting. The Las Vegas Sun reports Obama saying, “Don’t believe for a second this election is over. Don’t think for a minute that power concedes. We have to work like our future depends on it in these last few days, because it does.”
Both Michelle Obama and McCain have planned visits for Monday. Michelle Obama will speak at the College of Southern Nevada and McCain plans to speak in Las Vegas.
The most recent CNN/Time poll shows Obama with a 7 point lead, 52% to McCain’s 45%. Likewise, the most recent Research 2000 poll reports a 5 point lead for Obama, 50% to 45%.
In addition, Obama seems to be putting more effort into the campaign than McCain is. Today Obama stopped in Henderson at Coronado High School to get people excited about his policies and about voting. The Las Vegas Sun reports Obama saying, “Don’t believe for a second this election is over. Don’t think for a minute that power concedes. We have to work like our future depends on it in these last few days, because it does.”
Both Michelle Obama and McCain have planned visits for Monday. Michelle Obama will speak at the College of Southern Nevada and McCain plans to speak in Las Vegas.
Thursday, October 23, 2008
10 Days to Go
With only 10 days to go it's time to make another call for Nevada. A couple months ago it looked to be a tight race, maybe even in John McCain's favor. But now this battleground state seems to be leaning Obama.
One of the best predictors in the past few elections about how Nevada citizens vote has been the Yucca Mountain issue. People in Nevada favor those candidates that have promised to block or prolong Yucca Mountain as a possible nuclear waste site. Clinton promised to veto legislation to make a temporary site in Nevada in 1996,as did Bush in 2000. Both of these candiates won Nevada in their respective years. McCain has said he favors Yucca Mountain as a nuclear waste repository if research shows the site to be safe. In contrast, Obama does not approve of the Yucca Mountain as a nuclear waste site and therefore makes a more appealing case to those in Nevada.
Most polls during October have shown Obama with a 3 to 5 point lead on McCain. The most recent CNN/Time poll reports a a 5 point lead with Obama at 51% and McCain at 46%. However, the Zogby Internet poll actually shows McCain with an 8 point lead, 52% to Obama's 44%. The more consistent pattern, though, has been a slight lead for Obama throughout the past couple of weeks.
Also important is the large amount of newly registered voters. In the past two elections registered Republicans have outnumbered registered Democrats. The Obama campaign and the get out the vote efforts have now helped Democrats to outnumber Republicans by over 80,000. This reflects the current early voting trends, especially in the two key counties, Washoe and Clark.
In the third congressional district, the Las Vegas Sun reports that there have been 35, 528 ballots cast by Democrats, 19, 211 ballots by Republicans, and 10, 768 votes by Independents. This district contains the hotly contested congressional race between Republican Joe Porter and Democrat Dina Titus. The Republicans in all other districts have also been being heavily outvoted by Democrats.
Obama is also outspending McCain in Nevada. In early October, Obama spent $616,000 on television ads, compared to only $329,000 spent by McCain. This clearly has had an impact on the turnout of voters and continues to excite the Democratic base.
Because of these factors I am calling Nevada for Barack Obama.
One of the best predictors in the past few elections about how Nevada citizens vote has been the Yucca Mountain issue. People in Nevada favor those candidates that have promised to block or prolong Yucca Mountain as a possible nuclear waste site. Clinton promised to veto legislation to make a temporary site in Nevada in 1996,as did Bush in 2000. Both of these candiates won Nevada in their respective years. McCain has said he favors Yucca Mountain as a nuclear waste repository if research shows the site to be safe. In contrast, Obama does not approve of the Yucca Mountain as a nuclear waste site and therefore makes a more appealing case to those in Nevada.
Most polls during October have shown Obama with a 3 to 5 point lead on McCain. The most recent CNN/Time poll reports a a 5 point lead with Obama at 51% and McCain at 46%. However, the Zogby Internet poll actually shows McCain with an 8 point lead, 52% to Obama's 44%. The more consistent pattern, though, has been a slight lead for Obama throughout the past couple of weeks.
Also important is the large amount of newly registered voters. In the past two elections registered Republicans have outnumbered registered Democrats. The Obama campaign and the get out the vote efforts have now helped Democrats to outnumber Republicans by over 80,000. This reflects the current early voting trends, especially in the two key counties, Washoe and Clark.
In the third congressional district, the Las Vegas Sun reports that there have been 35, 528 ballots cast by Democrats, 19, 211 ballots by Republicans, and 10, 768 votes by Independents. This district contains the hotly contested congressional race between Republican Joe Porter and Democrat Dina Titus. The Republicans in all other districts have also been being heavily outvoted by Democrats.
Obama is also outspending McCain in Nevada. In early October, Obama spent $616,000 on television ads, compared to only $329,000 spent by McCain. This clearly has had an impact on the turnout of voters and continues to excite the Democratic base.
Because of these factors I am calling Nevada for Barack Obama.
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Where is John McCain?
Senator John McCain has not made one stop to Nevada since the Convention and has many Republicans wondering where the campaign is. Although the stop by Sarah Palin has helped to re-energize the base a little bit, the Obama camp is still campaigning much more fervently than McCain.
Obama has been to Nevada twice since the Democratic Convention with another stop planned for Saturday. This will be the 19th time for Obama to visit Nevada since the beginning of the primaries.
McCain’s State Chairman, Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki, expects more return visits by McCain or Palin. “The McCain-Palin campaign believes Nevada is important,” Krolicki said. “The machinery of the campaign is growing.” However, the actions of McCain and the statistics display a different message.
Obama has about 100 paid staffers in Nevada, compared to only 3o by McCain. Obama spent $616,000 compared to McCain’s $329,000 on television ads for the week of September 28- October 4. The get out the vote efforts by the Obama campaign were so much more successful that Democrats outnumber Republicans by over 80,000.
So far, the early voting ballots have reflected these efforts and Democrats continue outvoting Republicans by more than 2-to-1.
Obama has been to Nevada twice since the Democratic Convention with another stop planned for Saturday. This will be the 19th time for Obama to visit Nevada since the beginning of the primaries.
McCain’s State Chairman, Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki, expects more return visits by McCain or Palin. “The McCain-Palin campaign believes Nevada is important,” Krolicki said. “The machinery of the campaign is growing.” However, the actions of McCain and the statistics display a different message.
Obama has about 100 paid staffers in Nevada, compared to only 3o by McCain. Obama spent $616,000 compared to McCain’s $329,000 on television ads for the week of September 28- October 4. The get out the vote efforts by the Obama campaign were so much more successful that Democrats outnumber Republicans by over 80,000.
So far, the early voting ballots have reflected these efforts and Democrats continue outvoting Republicans by more than 2-to-1.
Polls Show no Clear Winner Yet
A new CNN/Time poll shows Obama with a 5 point lead in Nevada. The results have Obama at 51% and McCain at 46%.
This poll contrasts sharply with the Zogby poll a few days earlier that reports an 8 point lead for McCain with Obama at 44% and McCain at 52%.
A Politco/InsiderAdvantage poll from the same time shows both candidates dead even, both at 47%.
The most consistent trend in polling within Nevada has been a slight lead for Obama. Needless to say, these three polls show the race to still be a close one in this battleground state.
This poll contrasts sharply with the Zogby poll a few days earlier that reports an 8 point lead for McCain with Obama at 44% and McCain at 52%.
A Politco/InsiderAdvantage poll from the same time shows both candidates dead even, both at 47%.
The most consistent trend in polling within Nevada has been a slight lead for Obama. Needless to say, these three polls show the race to still be a close one in this battleground state.
Palin in Henderson
Governor Sarah Palin gave a toned-down version of her speech in Henderson on Tuesday. She appealed to a softer crowd by speaking about women’s rights and families. The Las Vegas Sun says Palin gave a number of family friendly proposals that is not typical of Republicans.
Palin mentioned equal pay for equal work and noted, “It’s about time we shattered that glass ceiling once and for all.” This softer image could be a result of recent polls about the approval ratings of both McCain and Palin.
The Las Vegas Sun reports 47 respondants with negative attitudes toward Palin, which has been a continuing trend ever since her national interviews with the media. The speech in Henderson reflected more of the original purpose of McCain’s picking her, to reach out to more Indpendent women.
Many women in the crowd were Hilary supoorters earlier in the year and are pleased to have Palin as a VP nominee. Barbara Dimmick, a registered Democrat at the rally, said she wasn’t going to vote at all after Hilary lost in the primaries but “then Sarah jumped in and got my vote ... We need women in politics. It’s long overdue.”
In the last few days Palin needs to continue to impress upon people the message of equality for women to gain more support from the Indpendent women if she hopes to change the pattern in current voting in Nevada.
Palin mentioned equal pay for equal work and noted, “It’s about time we shattered that glass ceiling once and for all.” This softer image could be a result of recent polls about the approval ratings of both McCain and Palin.
The Las Vegas Sun reports 47 respondants with negative attitudes toward Palin, which has been a continuing trend ever since her national interviews with the media. The speech in Henderson reflected more of the original purpose of McCain’s picking her, to reach out to more Indpendent women.
Many women in the crowd were Hilary supoorters earlier in the year and are pleased to have Palin as a VP nominee. Barbara Dimmick, a registered Democrat at the rally, said she wasn’t going to vote at all after Hilary lost in the primaries but “then Sarah jumped in and got my vote ... We need women in politics. It’s long overdue.”
In the last few days Palin needs to continue to impress upon people the message of equality for women to gain more support from the Indpendent women if she hopes to change the pattern in current voting in Nevada.
Monday, October 20, 2008
Dems Outnumber Republicans in Early Voting
According to the Clark County Registrar Democratic voters have a large lead on Republicans. As of midday Monday Democrats had cast 31, 875 ballots and Republicans had cast only 13, 371 ballots in the Las Vegas area.
Although outnumbered 2 to 1 in early voting, Republicans remain to have a slight edge in absentee voting. Republicans currently have 6, 616 ballots cast to the Democrats 6, 161 ballots.
Even though Democrats only slightly outnumber Republicans in number of registered voters in the Reno area there were similar voting patterns to that in Las Vegas. In the Reno area there were 6, 841 Democratic ballots and 3, 336 Republican ballots according to the Washoe County Registrar.
These two counties will have a big impact on the outcome of Nevada. Of the 1.4 million registered voters, 87% live in the Clark and Washoe Counties.
Although outnumbered 2 to 1 in early voting, Republicans remain to have a slight edge in absentee voting. Republicans currently have 6, 616 ballots cast to the Democrats 6, 161 ballots.
Even though Democrats only slightly outnumber Republicans in number of registered voters in the Reno area there were similar voting patterns to that in Las Vegas. In the Reno area there were 6, 841 Democratic ballots and 3, 336 Republican ballots according to the Washoe County Registrar.
These two counties will have a big impact on the outcome of Nevada. Of the 1.4 million registered voters, 87% live in the Clark and Washoe Counties.
Clinton Stumps for Obama
Bill Clinton spoke to a crowd of 2,500 Obama supporters on Sunday in Las Vegas at Chaparral High School. His speech focused on the economic crisis and healthcare, both of which are seen to be Obama's strong points.
The Las Vegas Sun quotes Clinton saying, "“We are picking someone to restore the fundamentals of the credit and banking industry in America, to bring back the American dream, to fix a broken health care system, to bring our troops home from Iraq, and to restore America’s standing in the world. If that’s the job, I don’t think it’s close on who we ought to hire.” Clinton notes that both candidates have done the right things amidst the financial crisis, but Obama understands the problem more clearly and has shown this during the debates.
Clinton also said that although McCain's health care plan might help in the short run, it would be insufficient in the future. Obama's plan, he arugues, would lead to more widespread and affordable access to health care.
The speech concluded with Clinton asking the people in the audience to talk with everyone they know and help get people to the polls. “All you have to do, to have an enormous victory on Election Day, is remind people,” Clinton said. “You can’t lose this election unless people forget what it’s about ... You keep putting it out there and we’ll have a great victory.”
Sunday, October 19, 2008
Polls Show Widening Gap
New polls show Obama taking a larger lead in Nevada. An Insider Advantage poll on 10/13 shows Obama at 49% and McCain at 46%. McCain lost 1 point since the last Insider Advantage poll on 10/6.
The latest Rasmussen poll on 10/16 has Obama at 50% and McCain at 45%. The last Rasmussen poll was on 10/2 and showed Obama at 51% and McCain at 47%.
According to Pollster.com McCain has been losing ground in Nevada since late September. The latest trends in polling have shown a negative correlation between the status of the economy and approval of John McCain. If this remains the trend throughout November Obama may easily sweep Nevada.
The latest Rasmussen poll on 10/16 has Obama at 50% and McCain at 45%. The last Rasmussen poll was on 10/2 and showed Obama at 51% and McCain at 47%.
According to Pollster.com McCain has been losing ground in Nevada since late September. The latest trends in polling have shown a negative correlation between the status of the economy and approval of John McCain. If this remains the trend throughout November Obama may easily sweep Nevada.
Newspapers Endorse Candidates
The Las Vegas Sun joined the list of newspapers that endorse Barack Obama today. There are now 102 newspaper endorsements for Obama compared to 32 for McCain. The Las Vegas Review announced its endorsement of McCain on Sunday as well.
The Las Vegas Sun says McCain would be more of the same and that although he calls himself a maverick the “reality is that on fundamental economic and foreign policy issues, his record is almost identical to that of George Bush”. They also back Obama’s foreign policy, which is to put diplomacy first and military force second. Like in the previous elections, the Las Vegas Sun agrees with the candidate using the most enivormentally friendly policies toward the Yucca Mountain. This is a critical time, The Sun says, because “the next president may be the only person who can stop the radioactive trucks and trains from coming to Nevada.”
In contrast, the Las Vegas Review Journal backs McCain because of his experience in such critical times. Even though Obama can excite new and young voters with showy rhetoric he does not have the experience needed to govern the US now. The Las Vegas Review reminds its readers that “his [Obama’s] four years in the U.S. Senate have failed to produce any memorable accomplishments.” They also endorse McCain because of his tax policy and note that “he would be far more likely to appoint judges who respect freedom and individual liberty and who recognize the restraints our Constitution imposes on the federal government”.
The opinions of these two papers also reflect the topics being discussed the most among voters. With such tough economic times many are giving their vote to the person who they trust most with fixing the economy. Obama has an advantage in this regard because of the number of newspaper endorsements. There are close to 10 million readers of newspapers endorsing Obama compared to only 2.5 million readers of McCain endorsed newspapers. In the final days before the election the man who gains the public’s trust will be much more likely to win the vote on November 4th.
The Las Vegas Sun says McCain would be more of the same and that although he calls himself a maverick the “reality is that on fundamental economic and foreign policy issues, his record is almost identical to that of George Bush”. They also back Obama’s foreign policy, which is to put diplomacy first and military force second. Like in the previous elections, the Las Vegas Sun agrees with the candidate using the most enivormentally friendly policies toward the Yucca Mountain. This is a critical time, The Sun says, because “the next president may be the only person who can stop the radioactive trucks and trains from coming to Nevada.”
In contrast, the Las Vegas Review Journal backs McCain because of his experience in such critical times. Even though Obama can excite new and young voters with showy rhetoric he does not have the experience needed to govern the US now. The Las Vegas Review reminds its readers that “his [Obama’s] four years in the U.S. Senate have failed to produce any memorable accomplishments.” They also endorse McCain because of his tax policy and note that “he would be far more likely to appoint judges who respect freedom and individual liberty and who recognize the restraints our Constitution imposes on the federal government”.
The opinions of these two papers also reflect the topics being discussed the most among voters. With such tough economic times many are giving their vote to the person who they trust most with fixing the economy. Obama has an advantage in this regard because of the number of newspaper endorsements. There are close to 10 million readers of newspapers endorsing Obama compared to only 2.5 million readers of McCain endorsed newspapers. In the final days before the election the man who gains the public’s trust will be much more likely to win the vote on November 4th.
Thursday, October 16, 2008
ACORN Scandal Might Deter Voters
After the raid of the Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now (ACORN) office in Nevada, many state officials are working hard to assure voters that their vote will count and fraudulent ballots will not be an issue. The Las Vegas Sun quotes Nevada Secretary of State Ross Miller saying, “We do a better job at protecting our voter rolls than any other state…I can say unequivocally that on Nov. 5, we’ll be able to say that we ran an honest election here.”
Because Nevada will most likely be one of the most closely contested states in the November election, officials want Nevada citizens to be sure of the legitimacy of the system. The ACORN scandal could deter some voters from polls because of their lack of faith in the system as a whole. Others might fear showing photo identification if they have past tickets or a record of some kind. Unversity of Nevada, Las Vegas Boyd School of Law Professor Sylvia Lazos says photo identification might also deter new voters like college students that don’t always have the proper identification needed at the polls.
Because the Democrats hold a much larger percentage of registered voters as compared to Republicans in Nevada, the supression of voters would ultimately favor McCain. With early voting beginning in just 2 days, Nevada officials will be doing all they can to reassure voters of the security of the system in order to ensure a fair election in the state.
Because Nevada will most likely be one of the most closely contested states in the November election, officials want Nevada citizens to be sure of the legitimacy of the system. The ACORN scandal could deter some voters from polls because of their lack of faith in the system as a whole. Others might fear showing photo identification if they have past tickets or a record of some kind. Unversity of Nevada, Las Vegas Boyd School of Law Professor Sylvia Lazos says photo identification might also deter new voters like college students that don’t always have the proper identification needed at the polls.
Because the Democrats hold a much larger percentage of registered voters as compared to Republicans in Nevada, the supression of voters would ultimately favor McCain. With early voting beginning in just 2 days, Nevada officials will be doing all they can to reassure voters of the security of the system in order to ensure a fair election in the state.
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
What Will Happen to the Yucca Mountain
One issue that has remained important for years is the Yucca Mountain as a possible site for nuclear waste. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission decided this past summer to begin applying for a license to open this site for business. The next president will have a large impact on whether or not the Yucca Mountain will actually become a nuclear waste site or not.
Senator Obama has said he does not approve of using the Yucca Mountain as a nuclear waste site because it is not safe for those living in Nevada and the transportation to the site would be too dangerous. Obama could cut the budget on this project although Congress would ultimately have the final say.
The Nuclear Waste Policy acts of 1982 and 1987 specifically designate Yucca Mountain as a potential site and therefore must be looked into. However, if the democrats win a majority in Congress an amendment of the law or stalling of the project is possible.
Senator McCain supports the project to build the nuclear waste site if it is proven to be safe and environmentally sound.
In the past two elections the people of Nevada have voted for the candidate showing the most interest in opposing the Yucca Mountain as a nuclear waste site. In 2000 Clinton won the vote because of a promised veto, as did Bush in 2004. If this pattern continues, Obama would be the Nevada pick in the election.
Senator Obama has said he does not approve of using the Yucca Mountain as a nuclear waste site because it is not safe for those living in Nevada and the transportation to the site would be too dangerous. Obama could cut the budget on this project although Congress would ultimately have the final say.
The Nuclear Waste Policy acts of 1982 and 1987 specifically designate Yucca Mountain as a potential site and therefore must be looked into. However, if the democrats win a majority in Congress an amendment of the law or stalling of the project is possible.
Senator McCain supports the project to build the nuclear waste site if it is proven to be safe and environmentally sound.
In the past two elections the people of Nevada have voted for the candidate showing the most interest in opposing the Yucca Mountain as a nuclear waste site. In 2000 Clinton won the vote because of a promised veto, as did Bush in 2004. If this pattern continues, Obama would be the Nevada pick in the election.
Early Voting
With early voting beginning in just three days in Nevada, many are beginning to wonder if the number of pollsters at voting sites will have any effect on the election. As a swing state, pollsters will be interested in gathering exit results to better predict the outcome in November.
County Registrar Larry Lomax said he estimates 300,000 people to cast their ballot early this year. Many choose this method because the lines are much shorter and there are more locations to choose from. However, the added hassle of the pollsters could deter some. For a list of early voting locations click here.
Will early voters be truthful with pollsters? Without a clear winner people might be less inclined to share their vote, especially if they feel their candidate might not win. However, the heightened interest in this election and the record number of registered voters in Nevada should have a significant impact on the turnout of those that choose to vote early.
The polls in the next couple of weeks will show whether early voters agree with recent results for a slight Obama win in Nevada. It will also be interesting to compare the results of the exit polls for accuracy with those of the actual election in November.
County Registrar Larry Lomax said he estimates 300,000 people to cast their ballot early this year. Many choose this method because the lines are much shorter and there are more locations to choose from. However, the added hassle of the pollsters could deter some. For a list of early voting locations click here.
Will early voters be truthful with pollsters? Without a clear winner people might be less inclined to share their vote, especially if they feel their candidate might not win. However, the heightened interest in this election and the record number of registered voters in Nevada should have a significant impact on the turnout of those that choose to vote early.
The polls in the next couple of weeks will show whether early voters agree with recent results for a slight Obama win in Nevada. It will also be interesting to compare the results of the exit polls for accuracy with those of the actual election in November.
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
Porter-Titus Race
The close race of Jon Porter and Dina Titus for the 3rd congressional district may have some effect on voters in the presidential race. Porter is the current republican congressman for this district, and Titus looks to use some of the same tactics as the democrats are using in the presidential election to beat him in this race.
Both campaigns, like the national election campaigns, have turned negative. Titus takes a play from Obama’s playbook and ran an ad against Porter for voting with Bush a majority of the time and implying he helped bring on the economic crisis this way. Titus in the ad says enough of the same, sound familiar?
Porter’s counterattack ad went after Titus as a habitual tax-raiser. With all the corruption on way street, he says, who needs another tax-and-spend politician. This is almost identical to McCain’s attacks on Obama.
With this race so heavily publicized and both candidates going back and froth with some of the same tactics that are being used in the national election, voters are hearing double the advertisements of Democrats and Republicans. These ads might cause the influx of new voters in the area to vote strictly on party line and relate McCain to Porter and Titus to Obama without closely examining policies.
Both campaigns, like the national election campaigns, have turned negative. Titus takes a play from Obama’s playbook and ran an ad against Porter for voting with Bush a majority of the time and implying he helped bring on the economic crisis this way. Titus in the ad says enough of the same, sound familiar?
Porter’s counterattack ad went after Titus as a habitual tax-raiser. With all the corruption on way street, he says, who needs another tax-and-spend politician. This is almost identical to McCain’s attacks on Obama.
With this race so heavily publicized and both candidates going back and froth with some of the same tactics that are being used in the national election, voters are hearing double the advertisements of Democrats and Republicans. These ads might cause the influx of new voters in the area to vote strictly on party line and relate McCain to Porter and Titus to Obama without closely examining policies.
Monday, October 6, 2008
Obama's Grassroots Efforts
As a retired teacher and California citizen, Dennis Connors planned to spend his time building model ships and possibly writing a book. Instead, he has decided to help the Obama campaign by volunteering in Nevada. With California solidly Obama, the Democrats can focus more heavily on key states like Nevada.
Connors is among hundreds of volunteers that will cross the border where voter registration is essential. Although this concept of crossing borders to help with campaigning is not new, many people are calling this the biggest grassroots effort ever in a presidential campaign.
The voter registration in Nevada has spiked for the Democrats during this election cycle. The Democrats now hold over an 80,000 lead on the GOP in number of registered voters, contrasting sharply with the nearly 7,000 person lead by the Republicans just two years ago.
Many of these new registered voters are among the 18-24 age group and could have a major impact on the election in this state. Within that age group, the Democrats have about 45% of registered voters, as opposed to the Republicans’ 26%. Whether or not these young voters show up to the polls on November 4 is yet to be determined.
It will also be important with such a close race for both campaigns to look at the independent voters. The Santa Cruz Sentinel reports there are 200,959 independent voters, which make up about 4% of the voters in Nevada.
Bush took this state in both 2000 and 2004 by a narrow margin and it will be interesting to see if these grassroots efforts will pay off for the Obama campaign in November.
Connors is among hundreds of volunteers that will cross the border where voter registration is essential. Although this concept of crossing borders to help with campaigning is not new, many people are calling this the biggest grassroots effort ever in a presidential campaign.
The voter registration in Nevada has spiked for the Democrats during this election cycle. The Democrats now hold over an 80,000 lead on the GOP in number of registered voters, contrasting sharply with the nearly 7,000 person lead by the Republicans just two years ago.
Many of these new registered voters are among the 18-24 age group and could have a major impact on the election in this state. Within that age group, the Democrats have about 45% of registered voters, as opposed to the Republicans’ 26%. Whether or not these young voters show up to the polls on November 4 is yet to be determined.
It will also be important with such a close race for both campaigns to look at the independent voters. The Santa Cruz Sentinel reports there are 200,959 independent voters, which make up about 4% of the voters in Nevada.
Bush took this state in both 2000 and 2004 by a narrow margin and it will be interesting to see if these grassroots efforts will pay off for the Obama campaign in November.
Sunday, October 5, 2008
More Campaign Stops
With the election about a month away, Nevada is still up for grabs although Obama seems to have a slight lead. The use of surrogates as well as campaign stops will be essential in these last few weeks to help take Nevada and its five electoral votes.
Mitt Romney visited Boulder City the first week of October on behalf of John McCain. Romney’s presence is important in Nevada because of the Mormon population. Romney got 95% of the vote during the primaries as a member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints himself. While Mormons only make up 2% of the national population, the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life reports the Mormon population making up 11% in Nevada. With the state too close to call, these votes could make a big difference.
Obama made his third stop in Elko in late September and spoke about help for small businesses like mining and ranching. Obama is one of the first Democrats to put such a large amount of investment in rural Nevada cities such as Elko. More recently Obama spoke at a rally in front of Morrill Hall at the University of Nevada. His message was centered towards the economy and his support for the bailout while staying true to his message of hope for the future.
More stops are sure to come from both parties before the November election. The most recent Rasmussen poll (October 2) has Obama leading with 51% to McCain at 47% which shows the race in this state is still very close.
Mitt Romney visited Boulder City the first week of October on behalf of John McCain. Romney’s presence is important in Nevada because of the Mormon population. Romney got 95% of the vote during the primaries as a member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints himself. While Mormons only make up 2% of the national population, the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life reports the Mormon population making up 11% in Nevada. With the state too close to call, these votes could make a big difference.
Obama made his third stop in Elko in late September and spoke about help for small businesses like mining and ranching. Obama is one of the first Democrats to put such a large amount of investment in rural Nevada cities such as Elko. More recently Obama spoke at a rally in front of Morrill Hall at the University of Nevada. His message was centered towards the economy and his support for the bailout while staying true to his message of hope for the future.
More stops are sure to come from both parties before the November election. The most recent Rasmussen poll (October 2) has Obama leading with 51% to McCain at 47% which shows the race in this state is still very close.
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
Democrats Focus on Hispanic Communities
The Democratic Party is focusing in on the Hispanic population in key states, including Nevada. New Obama television and radio ads began running in Spanish to appeal to the growing Latino community there. The ad addresses the economy and health care and mocks a statement by McCain that the fundamentals of the economy are strong.
Key issues to the Hispanic population include health care, education, immigration, and a sense of family. Nevada’s 11th District Assembly Member Ruben Kihuen is popular among the Hispanic community. Born in Mexico, Kihuen credits his success to his “personal touch” while campaigning. He says he knocked on doors and spoke with people then would follow up by writing each person a thank you note. Ultimately, Kihuen endorsed Clinton for president.
Community leaders such as Kihuen could have an impact on the turnout of the Hispanic voters in November. CNN reports Hispanics as making up 12% of eligible voters in Nevada and so turnout is crucial to the Obama campaign. A big hurdle is voter registration, and many cannot vote due to their illegal status.
Obama will need to continue rallying the Hispanic community and garnering the support of those who previously endorsed Hillary Clinton. The family ties Obama implies in his Spanish ad might help with addressing the personal touch Kihuen has been so successful with. Over the next few weeks the Obama campaign will need to watch carefully how effective the ads are in these communities and keep promoting voter registration to have influence in this swing state.
Key issues to the Hispanic population include health care, education, immigration, and a sense of family. Nevada’s 11th District Assembly Member Ruben Kihuen is popular among the Hispanic community. Born in Mexico, Kihuen credits his success to his “personal touch” while campaigning. He says he knocked on doors and spoke with people then would follow up by writing each person a thank you note. Ultimately, Kihuen endorsed Clinton for president.
Community leaders such as Kihuen could have an impact on the turnout of the Hispanic voters in November. CNN reports Hispanics as making up 12% of eligible voters in Nevada and so turnout is crucial to the Obama campaign. A big hurdle is voter registration, and many cannot vote due to their illegal status.
Obama will need to continue rallying the Hispanic community and garnering the support of those who previously endorsed Hillary Clinton. The family ties Obama implies in his Spanish ad might help with addressing the personal touch Kihuen has been so successful with. Over the next few weeks the Obama campaign will need to watch carefully how effective the ads are in these communities and keep promoting voter registration to have influence in this swing state.
Monday, September 15, 2008
Palin Goes Solo in Nevada
Palin made her solo debut in Nevada on Saturday and drew a capacity crowd of 3,500 in the Pony Express Pavilion in Carson City.
The GOP VP nominee talked about breaking the glass ceiling for women and revisted her points from the Convention speech. She reminded the crowd she isn't one of the good 'ol boys and promised to end corruption in Washington. She also talked about how she killed the bill for the "Bridge to Nowhere" and put up the governor's jet on Ebay. Read Palin's entire speech here.
The race remains close in Nevada, a recent Zogby International poll has McCain at 50.1% and Obama at 42.5% but a CNN/Time poll in late August showed Obama favored 49% to McCain at 44%.
The GOP VP nominee talked about breaking the glass ceiling for women and revisted her points from the Convention speech. She reminded the crowd she isn't one of the good 'ol boys and promised to end corruption in Washington. She also talked about how she killed the bill for the "Bridge to Nowhere" and put up the governor's jet on Ebay. Read Palin's entire speech here.
The race remains close in Nevada, a recent Zogby International poll has McCain at 50.1% and Obama at 42.5% but a CNN/Time poll in late August showed Obama favored 49% to McCain at 44%.
Sunday, September 14, 2008
50 Days To Go
There are 50 days to go until the presidential election, and Nevada is leaning toward McCain.
Polls show McCain currently in the lead with 47% and Obama with 44.7% although the two have remained in a close race the past few months.
Historically Nevada was a Democratic state, but in recent years has moved toward a more conservative political ideology. In the 1992 presidential election Clinton received 37.36% of the vote, Bush received 34.73% and Perot received 26.19%. Clinton took Nevada again in 1996 with 43.93% of the vote, Dole received 42.91% and Perot got 9.47%. In 2000 Bush won the state with 50% of the vote, Gore received 46% and Nader received 2%. Bush took Nevada again in 2004 with 50%, Kerry received 48% and Nader received 1%.
The key issue in the past few elections was the proposed site of the Yucca Mountains as a nuclear waste repository. Clinton promised to veto a temporary site in Nevada, as did Bush in 2000. As of May 2002, the Yucca Mountains became the permanent site, however, it is not supposed to be open until 2012. The date could also be delayed, especially with Harry Reid as the majority leader now. Click here to read more about the Yucca Mountain issue.
Polls show McCain currently in the lead with 47% and Obama with 44.7% although the two have remained in a close race the past few months.
Historically Nevada was a Democratic state, but in recent years has moved toward a more conservative political ideology. In the 1992 presidential election Clinton received 37.36% of the vote, Bush received 34.73% and Perot received 26.19%. Clinton took Nevada again in 1996 with 43.93% of the vote, Dole received 42.91% and Perot got 9.47%. In 2000 Bush won the state with 50% of the vote, Gore received 46% and Nader received 2%. Bush took Nevada again in 2004 with 50%, Kerry received 48% and Nader received 1%.
The key issue in the past few elections was the proposed site of the Yucca Mountains as a nuclear waste repository. Clinton promised to veto a temporary site in Nevada, as did Bush in 2000. As of May 2002, the Yucca Mountains became the permanent site, however, it is not supposed to be open until 2012. The date could also be delayed, especially with Harry Reid as the majority leader now. Click here to read more about the Yucca Mountain issue.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
