Obama announced earlier today the death of his grandmother, Madelyn Payne Dunham, age 86, after a long battle with cancer. Obama and his sister Maya Soetoro-Ng announced in a statement that "She was the cornerstone of our family, and a woman of extraordinary accomplishment, strength, and humility. She was the person who encouraged and allowed us to take chances," they said. "She was proud of her grandchildren and great-grandchildren and left this world with the knowledge that her impact on all of us was meaningful and enduring. Our debt to her is beyond measure. "
Obama learned of more sad news on Sunday as well. Terence Tolbert, 44, and Obama's Nevada campaign director passed away of a heart attack late Sunday night. Obama stated he was "shocked and saddened" to learn of Tolbert's death. The Las Vegas Sun quotes Obama saying, "Terence was a strong force in this campaign, with a positive outlook that brought people together. He was much loved by his team, who often repeated his motto of 'leave no stone unturned.' His enthusiasm, talent, and warm heart will truly be missed. The thoughts and prayers of the entire Obama-Biden family are with his wife and loved ones."
Two deaths in one weekend is a lot for Obama to handle, especially one day before the election. However, Obama still seems focused and visited Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia today.
Monday, November 3, 2008
Sunday, November 2, 2008
Record Number of Voters Expected
So far 600,000 voters in Nevada have cast their vote which represents 56% of all registered voters. The recent visits of McCain, Palin, and Obama have spurred an even greater surge in voter turnout.
Secretary of State Ross Miller says he expects 90%, or 1.1 million active voters to turn out for this election. While this might be an overstatement, record numbers are surely expected. In 2004, 821,866 voters cast a ballot in Nevada.
The majority of active voters live in Washoe County and account for 87% of the total number of registered voters. In Washoe 45% of the ballots have been Democrats and 38% have been Republican.
Obviously Nevada is following the national trend in turning out a record number of voters for this crucial election. Interestingly, however, will be the impact of newly registered voters in this state and the overwhelming majority of registered Democrats.
Secretary of State Ross Miller says he expects 90%, or 1.1 million active voters to turn out for this election. While this might be an overstatement, record numbers are surely expected. In 2004, 821,866 voters cast a ballot in Nevada.
The majority of active voters live in Washoe County and account for 87% of the total number of registered voters. In Washoe 45% of the ballots have been Democrats and 38% have been Republican.
Obviously Nevada is following the national trend in turning out a record number of voters for this crucial election. Interestingly, however, will be the impact of newly registered voters in this state and the overwhelming majority of registered Democrats.
1 Day To Go!
With only one day left to go, it still looks like Obama will take Nevada's 5 electoral votes with ease. There are several indicators for this prediction.
Looking at the polls, Obama has been leading for almost two months now. The most recent poll, the Mason-Dixon poll from October 28/29 shows Obama with 47% and McCain with 43%.
Secondly, Obama is outspending McCain on advertisements. CNN reports Obama as spending $8,457,067 to date compared to McCain's $5,343,068. As a battleground state, the number of ads is crucial, especially with the number of newly registered voters.
The number of newly registered voters strongly favors the Democrats. For counties like Clark and Washoe, this is the first time Democrats have outnumbered Republicans in registered voters. In Clark County 388,000 people have already cast their vote. Of these early votes 51% have come from Democrats and 32% have come from Republicans. Of all Democrats registered in Clark County, 51% have voted. Of all the registered Republicans 48% have voted.
Election Day is very important for both candidates and Independent voters will have a large impact in the results of this state. However, I still think it is safe to call Nevada for Obama.
Looking at the polls, Obama has been leading for almost two months now. The most recent poll, the Mason-Dixon poll from October 28/29 shows Obama with 47% and McCain with 43%.
Secondly, Obama is outspending McCain on advertisements. CNN reports Obama as spending $8,457,067 to date compared to McCain's $5,343,068. As a battleground state, the number of ads is crucial, especially with the number of newly registered voters.
The number of newly registered voters strongly favors the Democrats. For counties like Clark and Washoe, this is the first time Democrats have outnumbered Republicans in registered voters. In Clark County 388,000 people have already cast their vote. Of these early votes 51% have come from Democrats and 32% have come from Republicans. Of all Democrats registered in Clark County, 51% have voted. Of all the registered Republicans 48% have voted.
Election Day is very important for both candidates and Independent voters will have a large impact in the results of this state. However, I still think it is safe to call Nevada for Obama.
Saturday, November 1, 2008
The Blue State
With only three days to go until the election, Nevada no longer seems to be a battleground state. Both pollster.com and politico.com have changed the state from a battleground to an Obama state.
The most recent CNN/Time poll shows Obama with a 7 point lead, 52% to McCain’s 45%. Likewise, the most recent Research 2000 poll reports a 5 point lead for Obama, 50% to 45%.
In addition, Obama seems to be putting more effort into the campaign than McCain is. Today Obama stopped in Henderson at Coronado High School to get people excited about his policies and about voting. The Las Vegas Sun reports Obama saying, “Don’t believe for a second this election is over. Don’t think for a minute that power concedes. We have to work like our future depends on it in these last few days, because it does.”
Both Michelle Obama and McCain have planned visits for Monday. Michelle Obama will speak at the College of Southern Nevada and McCain plans to speak in Las Vegas.
The most recent CNN/Time poll shows Obama with a 7 point lead, 52% to McCain’s 45%. Likewise, the most recent Research 2000 poll reports a 5 point lead for Obama, 50% to 45%.
In addition, Obama seems to be putting more effort into the campaign than McCain is. Today Obama stopped in Henderson at Coronado High School to get people excited about his policies and about voting. The Las Vegas Sun reports Obama saying, “Don’t believe for a second this election is over. Don’t think for a minute that power concedes. We have to work like our future depends on it in these last few days, because it does.”
Both Michelle Obama and McCain have planned visits for Monday. Michelle Obama will speak at the College of Southern Nevada and McCain plans to speak in Las Vegas.
Thursday, October 23, 2008
10 Days to Go
With only 10 days to go it's time to make another call for Nevada. A couple months ago it looked to be a tight race, maybe even in John McCain's favor. But now this battleground state seems to be leaning Obama.
One of the best predictors in the past few elections about how Nevada citizens vote has been the Yucca Mountain issue. People in Nevada favor those candidates that have promised to block or prolong Yucca Mountain as a possible nuclear waste site. Clinton promised to veto legislation to make a temporary site in Nevada in 1996,as did Bush in 2000. Both of these candiates won Nevada in their respective years. McCain has said he favors Yucca Mountain as a nuclear waste repository if research shows the site to be safe. In contrast, Obama does not approve of the Yucca Mountain as a nuclear waste site and therefore makes a more appealing case to those in Nevada.
Most polls during October have shown Obama with a 3 to 5 point lead on McCain. The most recent CNN/Time poll reports a a 5 point lead with Obama at 51% and McCain at 46%. However, the Zogby Internet poll actually shows McCain with an 8 point lead, 52% to Obama's 44%. The more consistent pattern, though, has been a slight lead for Obama throughout the past couple of weeks.
Also important is the large amount of newly registered voters. In the past two elections registered Republicans have outnumbered registered Democrats. The Obama campaign and the get out the vote efforts have now helped Democrats to outnumber Republicans by over 80,000. This reflects the current early voting trends, especially in the two key counties, Washoe and Clark.
In the third congressional district, the Las Vegas Sun reports that there have been 35, 528 ballots cast by Democrats, 19, 211 ballots by Republicans, and 10, 768 votes by Independents. This district contains the hotly contested congressional race between Republican Joe Porter and Democrat Dina Titus. The Republicans in all other districts have also been being heavily outvoted by Democrats.
Obama is also outspending McCain in Nevada. In early October, Obama spent $616,000 on television ads, compared to only $329,000 spent by McCain. This clearly has had an impact on the turnout of voters and continues to excite the Democratic base.
Because of these factors I am calling Nevada for Barack Obama.
One of the best predictors in the past few elections about how Nevada citizens vote has been the Yucca Mountain issue. People in Nevada favor those candidates that have promised to block or prolong Yucca Mountain as a possible nuclear waste site. Clinton promised to veto legislation to make a temporary site in Nevada in 1996,as did Bush in 2000. Both of these candiates won Nevada in their respective years. McCain has said he favors Yucca Mountain as a nuclear waste repository if research shows the site to be safe. In contrast, Obama does not approve of the Yucca Mountain as a nuclear waste site and therefore makes a more appealing case to those in Nevada.
Most polls during October have shown Obama with a 3 to 5 point lead on McCain. The most recent CNN/Time poll reports a a 5 point lead with Obama at 51% and McCain at 46%. However, the Zogby Internet poll actually shows McCain with an 8 point lead, 52% to Obama's 44%. The more consistent pattern, though, has been a slight lead for Obama throughout the past couple of weeks.
Also important is the large amount of newly registered voters. In the past two elections registered Republicans have outnumbered registered Democrats. The Obama campaign and the get out the vote efforts have now helped Democrats to outnumber Republicans by over 80,000. This reflects the current early voting trends, especially in the two key counties, Washoe and Clark.
In the third congressional district, the Las Vegas Sun reports that there have been 35, 528 ballots cast by Democrats, 19, 211 ballots by Republicans, and 10, 768 votes by Independents. This district contains the hotly contested congressional race between Republican Joe Porter and Democrat Dina Titus. The Republicans in all other districts have also been being heavily outvoted by Democrats.
Obama is also outspending McCain in Nevada. In early October, Obama spent $616,000 on television ads, compared to only $329,000 spent by McCain. This clearly has had an impact on the turnout of voters and continues to excite the Democratic base.
Because of these factors I am calling Nevada for Barack Obama.
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Where is John McCain?
Senator John McCain has not made one stop to Nevada since the Convention and has many Republicans wondering where the campaign is. Although the stop by Sarah Palin has helped to re-energize the base a little bit, the Obama camp is still campaigning much more fervently than McCain.
Obama has been to Nevada twice since the Democratic Convention with another stop planned for Saturday. This will be the 19th time for Obama to visit Nevada since the beginning of the primaries.
McCain’s State Chairman, Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki, expects more return visits by McCain or Palin. “The McCain-Palin campaign believes Nevada is important,” Krolicki said. “The machinery of the campaign is growing.” However, the actions of McCain and the statistics display a different message.
Obama has about 100 paid staffers in Nevada, compared to only 3o by McCain. Obama spent $616,000 compared to McCain’s $329,000 on television ads for the week of September 28- October 4. The get out the vote efforts by the Obama campaign were so much more successful that Democrats outnumber Republicans by over 80,000.
So far, the early voting ballots have reflected these efforts and Democrats continue outvoting Republicans by more than 2-to-1.
Obama has been to Nevada twice since the Democratic Convention with another stop planned for Saturday. This will be the 19th time for Obama to visit Nevada since the beginning of the primaries.
McCain’s State Chairman, Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki, expects more return visits by McCain or Palin. “The McCain-Palin campaign believes Nevada is important,” Krolicki said. “The machinery of the campaign is growing.” However, the actions of McCain and the statistics display a different message.
Obama has about 100 paid staffers in Nevada, compared to only 3o by McCain. Obama spent $616,000 compared to McCain’s $329,000 on television ads for the week of September 28- October 4. The get out the vote efforts by the Obama campaign were so much more successful that Democrats outnumber Republicans by over 80,000.
So far, the early voting ballots have reflected these efforts and Democrats continue outvoting Republicans by more than 2-to-1.
Polls Show no Clear Winner Yet
A new CNN/Time poll shows Obama with a 5 point lead in Nevada. The results have Obama at 51% and McCain at 46%.
This poll contrasts sharply with the Zogby poll a few days earlier that reports an 8 point lead for McCain with Obama at 44% and McCain at 52%.
A Politco/InsiderAdvantage poll from the same time shows both candidates dead even, both at 47%.
The most consistent trend in polling within Nevada has been a slight lead for Obama. Needless to say, these three polls show the race to still be a close one in this battleground state.
This poll contrasts sharply with the Zogby poll a few days earlier that reports an 8 point lead for McCain with Obama at 44% and McCain at 52%.
A Politco/InsiderAdvantage poll from the same time shows both candidates dead even, both at 47%.
The most consistent trend in polling within Nevada has been a slight lead for Obama. Needless to say, these three polls show the race to still be a close one in this battleground state.
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